Quinoa & Chia Market - May 2020

• Bulk exports from Peru represented 95% of total exports and balance in retail
• Organic:Conventional ratio was 40%:60% vs last year, that was 30%:70% for the same period.
• Export destinations from Peru:
• 38% to North America
• 35% to EU
• 10% to LATAM  
• 17% to ASIA, Middle East, Oceania

• Main Chia producing origins like Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina will get into harvest, from May through July
• Some crop loss is expected in Paraguay because of extended drought in El Chaco region, more info on crop estimates will be known in coming months.

April & Going Forward Views

With the upcoming harvest set to commence in May for Quinoa, the market is taking note of a variety of factors on the supply and demand side that may be impacted due COVID-19. April we did see spot demands and enquiries from several buyers, but overall demand seems to have slowed down.  Usually April is a month for contracting volume or genuine pricing discussion, which was missing.

With the very recent developments worldwide causing an increase in sales, we are starting to hear of spot sale pricing having to increase between 100-200/mt

Peru's supply chain, with the extended lockdown and restriction enforced till mid-May and the possibility of being further extended due to increased COVID-19 cases, may face the heat of being slow and flow of product may be impacted from the field to factory, and factory to port. Prices may not be affected severely as demand also continues to be COVID-19 impacted and if demand continues to be slow, prices may remain at similar levels.

Also worth considering; Bolivia, one of the top Quinoa producing origins, is also landlocked, with no direct access to seaports. The flow of Quinoa out of Bolivia is likely to continue but could experience delays as we are now seeing regulations limiting activity throughout this region of the world. If ports were to be short-staffed and overburdened and Bolivian exports were to have a lower priority to ship, it would tighten supply availability substantially in the coming months.

Possible Scenarios

Bullish

• There is no reasons for the market to go down unless the demand for Quinoa were to drop significantly. As a dry grocery item with substantial shelf life, Quinoa is likely to maintain or gain market share during this time.
• For Quinoa buyers, it’s an ideal time to secure some spot loads and ensure your coverage for potential demand the upcoming months.

Bearish

• With COVID-19 affecting so many global economies, you can expect economies and spending to shrink and demand on many things going down. As a nutrient-rich dry grocery item with shelf stability, I believe the Quinoa is in a low-risk category for significant demand drop but is possible.