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Almond Market Update - August 5, 2021

The California wildfires continue, with increased lightning strikes last weekend and high winds — exerting their presence and persistence on the state. Many of us up north woke up Monday morning to ashfall, as well as a thin layer of ash covering everything outside. It is a constant reminder of how dry the state is and how desperate we are for rain.

The market continues to react with great concern as growers are slow to offer and continue to shy away from offers that are below the current asking prices. Many are significantly concerned about the shortage of water and increased restrictions being mandated by the state. This is a must read for those truly interested in California agriculture and where the market is headed.

There has been limited interest in selling the 2021 crop. Meanwhile, harvest is picking up a little bit each day — yet far from being in full swing. Initial feedback has not been positive on the kernel sizes and there has been even less interest to offer, until more is known about the size and quality.

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021

Week 31 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. There is pent-up demand as we lead into the new crop harvest. Meanwhile, growers are not offering leading, to put pressure on current market levels.
  2. Based on this week’s news from the state and the mandated water restrictions, there is more pressure than ever on the 2021 crop supply and what this means for the future production of almonds in California.
  3. Simultaneously, interest in selling the 2021 crop continues to wane by many of the growers.

Bearish Trends:

  1. What if everyone decides to start selling all at once? It may happen. There is only so much time that the growers can sit on the sidelines before it becomes imperative to start selling and moving the crop.
  2. The industry did a great job of marketing the 2020 crop. If shipments start off sluggish for the new crop year, it may become increasingly hard to catch up or keep pace with last year.
  3. While the objective estimate is calling for a 2.8 billion pound crop, historically, the subjective estimate has been more accurate and that was 3.2 billion pounds.

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