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Almond Market Update - August 5, 2020

As of this week, harvest has begun on a small scale in most southern valley regions.  Each day we will see more and more harvesting until fully ramped up throughout all growing regions.  Soon the hullers / shellers will also start running at full capacity.

The last two weeks have been relatively quiet, however, we have started to see India work through their local stocks and the interest in new crop inshell continues to gain momentum.  China has also shown interest in manufacturing grades at the current price levels which holds great promise for a rebound, despite the continuing political atmosphere.  Europe remains on holiday as usual for this time of year, resulting in a thinly traded market.  There is evidence, however, of pent up demand as local stock is almost completely gone by now.

New crop sales in June were an astounding 170 million pounds.  This is 75% ahead of last year at this time.  Next week on August 11th we will receive the position report for July and an update on new crop sales.


Week 32 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. California has a good start on new crop sales with an estimated sold position of 15% versus last year at this time being only 9% sold.
  2. Current market levels have remained very stable for several weeks now.  Buyers recognize this fact and have been measurably layering on their expected demand needs. 
  3. As we have noted previously, increased resistance from growers has helped lead to this stability.  With prices remaining lower than we have perhaps seen in a decade, innovation has been really accelerating plant-based products expanding into non-traditional categories throughout the grocery store.   Please reach out for samples of our Almond Protein Powder! 

Bearish Trends:

  1. Regardless of the strong shipments for current crop, it is the new crop supply that may have excessive demand that is of concern. 
  2. With COVID-19 not going away anytime soon, what will this do to the markets that continue to struggle and remain either shut down or subdued?
  3. The market may remain quiet for some time, with many already well positioned with current crop and strong new crop commitments.

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