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Almond Market Update - July 9, 2021

California continues to be in a real swelter!   The Governor of the state is calling for additional watering restrictions as reservoirs fall below 30% to normal.  Newsom has asked all Californians to voluntarily reduce water usage by 15% amid our drought.   I have immediately switched to Vodka.

With the shipping report having come out today and the objective estimate coming out on Monday July 12th, the market has been relatively quiet as sellers are hard to find.  Expect to see the pendulum swing to the other side next week as more data points are consumed and markets start to take form.

For June the industry shipped 220.5 million pounds (larger than last month), exceeding last June’s shipment of 175 million pounds, a +25.7% increase.  This brings the total shipped for the year to 2.669 billion pounds at +21.7% ahead of last year.  With one more month to go, the industry is on track to ship over 2.8 billion pounds and the expected carry-over is now ~610 million pounds.

An additional 108 million pounds of new sales for current crop were added on during June, versus 90 million pounds last year.  Demand remains strong as we approach the finishing line.  

An additional 95 million pounds of new crop sales were also added on in June to bring total new crop commitments to 326 million pounds.  Last year at this time the industry had 458 million pounds of new crop sales on the books.  Growers are resolute that new crop pricing must improve in order to be sustainable.  Additionally, drought concerns continue to grow.

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

Next shipping report: August 12, 2021 (new crop sales will continue to be reported)
Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021

Week 27 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. Remarkably, the industry continues with yet another shipment record in June with shipments of 220.5 million pounds.  Hidden in the month is additional current crop new sales of 108 million pounds. This will assure us of strong shipments continuing into new crop.
  2. The drought concerns continue to mount as watering restrictions increase. While it may or may not have an effect on this year’s crop, if the drought continues, it will most certainly impact production of next year’s crop.
  3. As more markets work to open up and return to whatever the new norm will be, one thing remains: The demand for almonds has never been stronger.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Many believe that there is an over-supply in certain areas within the supply chain that may begin to slow down new crop shipments.
  2. The reluctance of the sellers to sell into the new crop as they push for higher prices may come back to haunt them later; as the momentum may slow down and cause disruption.
  3. Monday will tell the story on just how big of a crop there will be to sell in 2021.  It will be critical to start new crop sales without hesitation if it is an even larger estimate than the 3.2 billion pound Subjective.

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