Almond Market Update - July 29, 2021

August is quickly approaching, and the almond harvest continues to expand through the growing regions with the earliest varieties currently underway.  Soon the first loads will reach the Huller/Shellers and within the next two weeks we should start receiving new crop at the plant levels. This process will last into October in the northern part of the state.  It is truly an exciting time.

Yes the NASS objective estimate of 2.8 billion pounds did catch the majority of the industry off-guard. But it is the number the industry will have to market off of until more data can prove it right or wrong.  This is the case each year and that should be of no surprise.  

The strong shipments throughout the year have put the industry in an excellent position for the carryout of the 2020 crop. Expectations are for the carryover to be in the area of 600 to 610 million pounds.  This represents the coverage between the transition from current crop to new crop.  It has historically meant to cover an 8 week period.  With an average of over 242 million pounds having shipped per month this year, it is obvious the carryover is hardly enough. As a result, we are seeing the industry short on the most popular sizes and varieties.  The new crop can’t get here soon enough.

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021
 

Week 29 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. Demand continues to grow as we see acceptance of new market levels.  Those that understand their demand needs are booking accordingly and not waiting.
2. With the California drought fully gripping the water supply, there is greater concern for next year’s crop.  This will eventually be reflected in the marketing of the 2021 crop.
3. Surprisingly, despite the improved market levels now in favor of the grower, we still see a hesitancy to sell.  This may lead to further firming in the near term.

Bearish Trends:

1. With the reluctance of the growers to sell, time may run out and everyone will jump into the market at the same time. This could lead to prices softening and  having the reverse effect.
2. If there are few transactions being done, the pricing levels really may not mean anything other than an indication.  Once the market really starts to form, we may see the true market.
3. With the cost of shipping, export sales may be highly impacted.  Let’s face it, without export sales leading the charge, the market may be reset sooner than later.

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