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Almond Market Update - July 23, 2020

On July 7th the objective estimate of 3.0 billion pounds was reported, we received the June position report from the Almond Board of California a few days later on July 10th.  The industry managed to ship 175 million pounds, up 6% from last year’s 165 million pounds. This does reflect the easing of the lockdowns in many of the shipping destinations around the world.  Exports were 116 million pounds, up 8.2% over last June. This was led by shipments to India with a record 23 million pounds shipped in June, up 52% over last year.  This reflects positively on resolving stock held up during COVID-19 and the subsequent market drop.  The Middle East was also a shining star with similar results.

The industry managed to sell over 89 million pounds of the 2019 crop. This brings the total commitments up to 370 million pounds for the 2019 crop. This should lead to strong shipments continuing in July and August, carrying through the transition between current crop to new crop.

New crop sales in June was an astounding 170 million pounds.  This is 75% ahead of last year at this time. 

 

Week 30 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. Based on a 3 billion pound crop, with 458 million pounds sold, California has already sold 15% of the new crop pre-harvest.  Last year at this time we had only sold 9% of the crop.
  2. Current market levels represents a great value and buyers recognize that fact.   Regardless of a clear picture of demand, buyers are willing to layer on business accordingly.
  3. With pricing remaining lower than we have perhaps seen in a decade, they do reflect levels below cost of production.   With increased resistance from growers, from further price declines, this has led to increased confidence from buyers.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Regardless of the strong shipments for current crop, it is the new crop that may have exceeded demand that is of concern. 
  2. With COVID-19 not going away anytime soon, what will this do to the markets that continue to fight it?
  3. The market may remain quiet for some time with many already well positioned with current crop.

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