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Almond Market Update - July 2, 2020

Since the first of the year and the onslaught of COVID-19 that soon followed, we have seen the almond market continue to weaken.  For the first time since, we have finally seen the market firm up modestly over the last two weeks.

This may be signaling the bottom of the market having been reached, leading to a stable and sure market we can all depend on.  It has been no secret that these levels would be difficult to maintain, as they have been significantly below the cost to grow and harvest.

The objective estimate will be released next Tuesday, July 7th and will mark the final data point to base our best estimate of the size of the 2020 crop.  This will also be followed by the June position report on Friday, July 10th

 

Week 27 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. We saw pricing for specific sizes and varieties increase this week, with standards rising by as much as 12 cents per pound.  As the lower grades continue to push up, everything else should follow. 
  2. These levels still remain a tremendous value and will for some time to come.  The market has been waiting for stability and it looks like we may have finally found it.
  3. Retail demand has picked up again as the pantries have been depleted and consumers are back to purchasing once again.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Despite the firming prices, the market remains at best moderately bearish. It will take more than two weeks to solidify a stable market and show that true demand is back. 
  2. Buyers may still be cautious due to recent volatile market conditions.
  3. We need to see stability across all markets as many are still shut down.  Key markets such as India, the Middle East and China remain as pivotal players.

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