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Almond Market Update - July 1, 2021

We are wishing everyone a Happy Fourth of July weekend.  Please enjoy the long weekend and try not to lose any digits.  

With the June shipping report coming out on July 9th and the long awaited Objective Estimate scheduled to be released the following Monday, July is set to bring some fireworks to the category.  July also represents the final month of the 20/21 crop year, and what a year it has been.  With record almond production of over 3.1 billion pounds, when the smoke clears we will have shipped close to 2.85 billion pounds.  Proving once again, that the industry knows how to market almonds to the world.  The world reciprocates, loving almonds as it is the most versatile and best “bang for the buck” tree nut available. 

The market itself has been somewhat quiet this week as we enter the summer holiday season. Most importantly, sellers have been quiet, not willing to offer new crop just yet as we approach the July 12th estimate.  Expectations are for market pressures to move prices up as growers will not be willing to operate at below cost to grow levels two seasons in a row.  The industry has enjoyed a 20% category growth this year and essentially demand has now caught up to the supply side.

 

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

Next shipping report: July 9, 2021 (new crop sales will continue to be reported)
Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021
 

Week 26 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. The market continues to show strength as prices firm and supply of specific varieties and sizes become harder to find with each passing day.  
  2. The drought is in the forefront of many selling decisions being made now as new heat records are being set every day in the Pacific Northwest and throughout the western states.
  3. Regardless of all the issues that remain, the industry soldiers on and demand growth will continue to carry into the new crop year.
     

Bearish Trends:

  1. Shipping issues are at an all-time high, as it becomes increasingly difficult to obtain containers and vessels.
  2. At some point the growers will wake up and realize it is time to sell new crop. Will they have waited too long?  If everyone suddenly comes onto the market at the same time, bids may be driven down.
  3. Despite today’s drought, there is a long way to go and we have this coming winter to hold out hope for.  History shows that one good winter is all it takes to forget about this last winter.

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