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Almond Market Update - June 3, 2020

California weather continues to remind us all why we love it so much!  Plenty of beautiful sunshine and warm days so far, with more ahead of us.

The Almond Market continued to remain relatively quiet this week following various holidays in many of the major markets, this certainly being the case for both the EU and US Domestic.

With some of the other markets now starting back up and borders opening, there is plenty of demand waiting to be serviced as we saw activity in Turkey and the Middle East for both current crop and new crop. 

Please note that as we move through the remaining crop, there is a tightening on specific sizes and varieties now.  Most impacted are NPX large sizes 23/25 AOL and CTS, Cal SSR 30/32 AOS.  Please cover your needs sooner than later if you need coverage prior to the new crop.

Next Thursday June 11th will be the May shipping report. Last year we saw record shipments of 178.7 million pounds.  While we do not expect to see this high a number we do anticipate a respectful 170-175 million pounds. This report also marks the first indication for new crop sales, and will be closely monitored.

Week 23 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. We are starting to see the scarcity mentioned above throughout the industry despite an anticipated increase in carry-over.  This may lead to prices firming for now.
  2. Standards continue to hold steady for the second straight week at $1.90 and with new crop at $1.85/lbs.  “It is hard to dig deeper when you have hit rock bottom.”
  3. Prices remain such a great value proposition.  You cannot help but notice increased activity in the grocery stores as well as box stores with displays in all the high traffic areas.  We have noticed increased requests for samples from R&D departments as everyone gets back to work!

Bearish Trends:

  1. While shipments have been strong through April, these trends may be slowing down now.
  2. With two months left for the current crop year to ship, what can be done by the industry to overcome heavy cargoes and defaults in key export markets?
  3. While there may be some tight inventory on specific sizes for current crop, some may try to wait on the incoming new crop, which is only three months out. 

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