Almond Market Update - June 26, 2020

Growing conditions have remained excellent while we move closer to harvest, with the earliest areas just weeks away now.

With the objective estimate coming out on July 7^th, the market has continued to stabilize.  Expect to see the market remain stable up to the estimate.

To recap where the various sources have estimated the crop size thus far please note the following:

• Bountiful – 2.787 bn lbs.
• Wonderful - 2.85 bn lbs.
• TNT – 2.96 bn lbs.
• Subjective Estimate – 3.0 bn lbs.

As you can see there are several sources now to compare with the Objective Estimate.  NASS has gone through a bit of a refresh this year with the intention of improving its accuracy.  Each methodology has their own merits and only helps to contribute to more data points being considered.

As mentioned in previous weeks, there is minimal remaining stock of specific grades of NPX as well as small size pollinators.  Please cover your needs sooner than later if you need these specific items prior to new crop.

Week 26 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. For the second straight week we have seen pricing stay steady.  Many do believe the bottom of the market has been set.
2. Prices continue to be such a great value for the money versus all other tree nuts.  Consumers will continue to reap the benefits of a low cost healthy snack for the foreseeable future.
3. With a strong carry-over and the new crop on the way soon, demand will be met with no disruption in supply.

Bearish Trends:

1. It has been difficult to forecast future demand due to the disruption throughout the marketplaces, both domestic and abroad. 
2. With the market being so up and down, how can we determine the right time to buy?  We need to see stability.
3. Regardless of the crop estimates, the crop will be larger and supply will trump demand for the time being as COVID-19 remains a threat worldwide.

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