Almond Market Update - June 25, 2021

The almond growing season has been excellent thus far despite drought like conditions.  While we have had unseasonably hot temperatures, there have been cool downs at night and the last 5 days the temperatures cooled off to a more reasonable high in the low 90’s and morning lows of 59 degrees.   Unfortunately we are headed back up to triple digits this weekend and into next week.

What does all this mean?  Well, it means more water required to keep the almond trees healthy and in order to maximize the yield, they will need all the water they can get in these higher temperatures.  With the drought being what it is, depending on the region, the grower, and their access to water, water quality of said water will depend on how they get through the remaining 30 to 45 days of the growing season. 

June has really flown by, the shipping issues remain a sore spot for the industry and despite the great shipping numbers exhibited by export, it is hard to imagine what could have been under normal circumstances.  Unfortunately, normal seems to be far off into the distant future.  For the time being, we will manage expectations accordingly, and continue to all do our best to work through it. June numbers are expected to be another record month as July will close out the 2020 crop year with a bang to be sure!

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

• Next shipping report: July 9, 2021 (new crop sales will continue to be reported)
• Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
• Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021

Week 25 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. We saw the market continue to firm up last week as demand continues to hit supply of key varieties and sizes.  
2. With the western drought, the industry will have to start to address next year’s crop as it stands to be more affected than the 2021 crop will be, should the drought continue into next year.
3. Supply will remain a dependable asset to continued growth for plant based innovation with many new products hitting the market every day now.

 Bearish Trends:

1. Despite negativity of the drought, the new crop estimate is reasonable.  Another large crop back to back should keep the market in check.
2. The market remains thinly traded on new crop as growers remain quiet anticipating higher prices.  With every passing day we get closer to harvest and the selling pressure may eventually set in with reality.
3. While the drought is real, it may have less of an effect on this year’s crop and more so on next year's crop (should the drought continue) into 2022.

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