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Almond Market Update - June 12, 2020

This week brought more of the ideal growing conditions expected for this time of the year.

We are starting to see many markets opening up, or at least start signaling target dates to re-open, and this has inspired trading activity throughout the Middle East and Turkey.  The EU has remained relatively quiet up to now.  However, there is signaling that there is pent up demand as local stocks are all but depleted.

The Almond Board released the May shipment report Thursday.  This report is the first report of the season to show new crop commitments of 286.5 million pounds.  This is a 115 % increase of new crop commitments over last year’s 133.2 million pounds at this time.  Shipments for May were 154 million pounds, more on this below.

As mentioned last week, we are starting to see a very tight position for most remaining grades of NPX as well as small size pollinators.  Please cover your needs sooner than later if you need these specific items.

Week 24 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. We are starting to see some scarcity on many grades as mentioned above.  This has lead to a firming on prices for 23/25 and larger NPX.
  2. Total commitments are up at 456 million pounds, +25.8 % over last year this same time.  With two months left to ship, June and July could exceed last year’s shipments.
  3. Prices continue and will continue to be the best value for the money versus all other tree nuts.  Innovation is at a peak, both domestic and abroad, being driven by consumers looking for healthier plant-based alternatives in snacks and meal replacements.

Bearish Trends:

  1. While shipments have been strong through April, we now have seen May fall short of expectations.  With 154 million pounds shipped in May, this is a -14% drop versus a year ago.  A signaling that the pantries are full, both literally and figuratively. 
  2. With two months left for the current crop year to ship, it remains to be seen if the industry can ship enough to avoid a large carry-out as we head into harvest of the expected record 2020 crop.
  3. While there may be some tight inventory on specific sizes for current crop, the new crop is only weeks away now.  Time may have run out.

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