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Almond Market Update - May 28, 2020

California went from rain, hail and snow last week, to temperatures peaking above 105 degrees today.

The Almond Market has remained relatively quiet this week following various holidays in many of the major markets. 

We are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel as markets begin to emerge from their stasis.  What demand looks like, will depend on how quickly the markets do open up and how comfortable consumers will be returning to their previous norms.  With only two shipping months left of this crop year, the industry should finish ahead of last year by 3% to 5% depending on how strong demand comes back over this time period.

 

Week 22 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. We are starting to see renewed interest as the markets begin to get active again.  For two weeks we have seen market firmness and grower resistance to lower prices. This is especially true for the new crop, as few growers are willing to sell at these depressed levels.
  2. Estimated shipments over the next two months look good and should result in a very manageable carry-over.
  3. As prices remain at or below a 10 year low, almonds remain a great value proposition.  Once the innovation pipelines open up again, we should see a rush to market with new products.

Bearish Trends:

  1. While shipments have been strong up to now, recent consumption may have slowed, causing supply to swing out of balance to demand.
  2. Uncertainty remains, as many business sectors will be slow to re-open with restrictions in place.
  3. While some markets are opening slowly, lockdowns are still in place in many markets. With two months left before the new crop arrives, can the industry ship enough to reduce the carry out from current projections of around 450 million pounds?

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