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Almond Market Update - May 27, 2021

Wishing everyone a happy Memorial Day weekend, while honoring the men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice while serving in the U.S. military, so that we can enjoy our freedom.   

Our weather this last week has been great, but Memorial Day marks the beginning of summer and summer it will be with 102 to 106 degrees forecasted throughout the valley starting Monday! 

The month of May has been very good for current crop sales as well as new crop sales being added on for the fourth quarter (albeit conservatively until more is known of the 2021 crop size).   Shipping issues appear to be getting worse, and it remains to be seen as to what effect it will have, if any, on the position report due in two weeks.  This will also be the first glimpse at new crop sales and how it will compare to last year at this time. 

With the debate over the subjective estimate, the report does not go without it’s share of controversy.  What would a subjective or objective estimate for that matter be, if not for controversy? Having said that, we are going to have another large crop, whether it is 3.2 billion pounds or 2.90 billion pounds we will ultimately have as much if not arguably more almonds to sell in the 2021 crop year than we did for 2020.  This will allow for a stable market that everyone can count on.

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

Next shipping report: June 10, 2021
Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
Final shipping report for the 2020 crop year: August 12, 2021

Week 21 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. May shipments will reflect another record in the books. Expectations are for well over 200 million pounds shipped compared to last May’s 154 million pounds.  This will keep us on track for double digit growth year over year.
  2. Market levels continue to trade in a narrow band with little variance other than for the harder to find large size Nonpareil varieties.
  3. As the markets start to emerge and food service starts to come back, expectations are for a boost to occur from this sector as well.  Airlines are reporting pre-COVID like travel occurring this weekend and into the summer months.

Bearish Trends:

  1. All the above sounds so good, but new crop sales have not occurred yet as it had last year at this time.  If all the growers come back onto the market at the same time, we may see a feeding frenzy occur.
  2. Additionally with back to back large crops of this magnitude, supply may remain out of step with demand and pricing must remain aggressive.
  3. Unfortunately, we are not out of the woods with the Coronavirus as we see issues in India, Japan, and even hot spots here in the USA that remain a major concern.

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