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Almond Market Update - May 21, 2020

California saw an unexpected weather pattern emerge this week with widespread rain, hail, and even some snow in the Sierras.  A welcome sight to be sure.

The Almond Market was relatively quiet this week.  With holidays around the globe in some places and lock downs still in effect in others, we saw little activity.  Business continues to be hand to mouth.

Having said that, it is evident that there is pent up demand.  The question remains, just how soon will it materialize and translate to new activity? This will greatly depend on markets opening back up, working through local inventories, and consumption continuing to grow.

 

Week 21 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. May sales for the first two weeks have been very strong, as would be expected with the current market levels.
  2. With current shipments of 1,863 billion pounds and commitments of another 499 million pounds, 93% of the crop has been sold.
  3. As prices are at or below the cost of production for most growers, we will likely see increased selling resistance at lower levels.

Bearish Trends:

  1. While shipments have been strong to this point, US domestic consumption may have slowed down recently due to pantries being full.
  2. Uncertainty remains, as many business sectors remain closed or severely hampered, i.e. food service. 
  3. With lockdowns still in place for many ports across the globe and time running down, it remains to be seen if the industry can possibly catch up before the new crop arrives and reduce the carry out from the current projections of around 450 million pounds.

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