Almond Market Update - May 12, 2021
This week has brought more summer heat, as temperatures will hit a high of 97 degrees in some areas of the growing region and pretty much stay in the mid to high eighty’s all of next week. As previously mentioned, drought conditions are grabbing the headlines now. Throughout the state, water conditions only worsen. It is very early into the fire season, yet it is already upon us with 13,922 acres burned thus far throughout the state.
The April shipment report was released yesterday. The crop receipts have all but topped out now with 3.098 billion pounds received to date, which translates to maxing out at just over 3.10 billion pounds. The industry continues to exceed expectations. With over 2,228.8 billion pounds shipped year to date, the industry is now +19.6 % ahead of last year at this time. Additionally, 163 million pounds of new business was added on during the month, out preforming last April’s 125 million pounds by +30.6%.
Driven mainly by export volumes, we saw 180 million pounds exported in April. About a 74% increase over last April’s shipments. Overall, export shipments are ahead of last year by 28%. All export markets are contributing to the increase led by China up +67%, India up +57%, the UAE up +23%, and Western Europe up +14% year to date.
Meanwhile, USA domestic sales have slowed down over the last two months. April sales were off – 10% versus last year with 70 million pounds shipped versus a record last year of 78 million pounds. We now stand just 2% ahead of last year, with 602 million pounds shipped year to date.
The even bigger news is today’s subjective estimate released today by NASS. Based on a forecasted 1.33 million acres and a forecasted yield of 2,410 pounds per acre (-3% below 2020 crop yield), the subjective estimate for the 2021 crop is 3.20 billion pounds.
Remaining Benchmark Dates:
Week 19 Update:
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