Almond Market Update - April 9, 2020

This week we have seen COVID-19 reach a high in the east as we pause to pray for all of those directly affected by the virus. While we must stay steady with our due diligence, we can at least see there is a flattening of the curve in NY, NJ, CA and many EU countries with fewer new cases occurring.  This gives us strength in knowing the sheltering in place is working. 

We delayed this week’s almond report for the sole purpose of waiting for the Almond Board’s position report to be released this morning.  The results, while anticipated, are even better than expected.

Week 15 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. March shipments were 208 million lbs, 12.6% ahead of last year and a record for March, representing four months in a row of record shipments. Domestic demand remains strong as with shipments up 31% over last March’s report due to increased consumer consumption. Export shipments were also strong with a 3.5% increase year over year.
2. New sales of 174 million pounds are also a record for March and greatly exceeded industry expectations. This puts commitments now 20% ahead of last year.
3. Pricing remains very favorable and is among the lowest levels we have seen in many years. This represents the best value in any tree nut by far.

Bearish Trends:

1. The US Dollar remains strong against other currencies. Exchange rates have been hurt, weakening the purchasing power in export markets.
2. With some markets such as India and Iran remaining closed this week and most likely for several more weeks, disruptions in the supply chain could impact business and in turn hurt demand.
3. There is still uncertainty; what are the short-term effects of shelter in place to the worldwide economies? With limited access to certain markets and a growing supply of almonds, how will this impact the business in six months?