Almond Market Update - April 29, 2021

We went from a short spring into summer in the course of a few days.  California saw 75 degree weather last week, followed by rain and snow over the weekend; now we are going to see 90 degrees the rest of the week through much of the valley.   Overall it remains unseasonably dry and water restrictions are being put in place throughout California as we prepare for one of the driest years ever seen. 

The USDA Almond Acreage report was released on Thursday, April 22nd.  Last year the industry harvested 1.25 million acres per the USDA Acreage report. It is also important to note that Land IQ pegged the bearing acreage at 1.242 million acres. Preliminary bearing acreage for the 2021 crop is estimated at 1.33 million acres per USDA and 1.324 million acres per Land IQ.  Depending on where the average yield per acre will be for this year will of course determine the overall crop size.  Initial yield expectations range between 2,150 and 2,200 lbs. per acre, which gives an estimated 2021 crop range of 2.85 to 2.95 billion lbs. Right now, this is as good of a guess as any!   With the Subjective Estimate just two weeks away, we will have another data point to help us along this journey.

Remaining Benchmark Dates:

April Shipment report; May 11, 2021
Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2021
Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
 

Week 17 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. While shipping issues remain a challenge and potentially may get worse in the weeks ahead, we do expect April shipments to be another record.  In fact, it is expected to far exceed last year and keep the industry on track.
2. Pricing remains stable through last week as demand also remains consistent. Available stocks on specific items are starting to become harder to find.  Quality varieties and sizes are more and more under pressure as supply dwindles down until new crop arrives. 
3. It seems that each week that passes a new plant-based product comes along as what was once a niche marketplace is becoming more mainstream every day.  It is an exciting time to be a part of the almond industry.  But then again, it always has been!

Bearish Trends:

1. COVID-19 has forced both Turkey and India into shutdowns once again.  These two key markets are affecting the almond market as well as the world markets.  We pray for everyone’s safety and hope for their quick recovery.
2. The acreage report is the elephant in the room.  No one expected bearing acreage to grow to this extent, and certainly no one expected to see the number of new acreage going in the ground to be so high.
3. The 2020 crop receipts of 3.1 billion pounds was not a fluke and is only the beginning.  We are likely going to continue to see larger and larger crops coming over the next few years.

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