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Almond Market Update - April 21, 2021

The California weather continues to astound us with summer-like conditions one day and spring-like conditions the next.  We have seen swings in the temperature in a single day by as much as 40 degrees. Mother Nature cannot make up her mind at the moment. We even have a forecast for rain this weekend.  We can’t wait!

On the heels of the April 9th shipping report, coupled with some industry news of projections of the August harvest, the market is working hard to find itself.   The industry has now shipped over 1.978 billion pounds of almonds and is +17.7 % ahead of last year at this time. 

With four months left to report, the stretch goal will be to maximize shipments with the outlook to ship approximately 860 million more pounds or 2.838 billion pounds for the season.  This would mean a carry-out of 650 million pounds.  This would mean averaging about 215 million pounds per month over the remaining four months.  With 811 million pounds already in commitments, it seems very much within our grasp.

All that is left to do is ship, ship, ship.

The USDA Almond Acreage report will be released this Thursday.  As a point of reference, last year the industry harvested 1.26 million acres per the USDA Acreage report. It is also important to note that Land IQ pegged the bearing acreage at 1.242 million acres.

The next important dates to note:

Acreage report: April 22, 2021
Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2021
Objective Estimate: July 12, 2021
 

Week 16 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. Demand continues to improve this week as buyers realize now that the market has shown its strength and has firmed up. 
  2. Despite slightly firmer prices, almonds are still a great value compared to other tree nuts and buyers know it.  With the likelihood of a smaller crop for next season, this is an ideal time to buy while there is availability on the most popular sizes and varieties.
  3. With more businesses opening up every day, this will give the needed boost to finish the crop year strong. 
     

Bearish Trends:

  1. COVID-19 appears to be in wave three.  Those countries that have not had the opportunity to have maximized vaccine programs are suffering as a result.  This may lead to further shut-downs.
  2. The domestic market is trending down and may not recover as quickly as one would like.  With many business remaining closed, the rebuilding has only begun.  
  3. While reports of the new crop are ranging from 2.76 to 2.86 billion pounds, we really will not know the true number until well into harvest and crop receipts are received in December/January 2022.

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