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Almond Market Update - April 15, 2020

We hope this finds you doing well along with all your family, friends, and neighbors.  Now is a great time to reflect on all our relationships and check up on those we may not have talked to recently, especially your favorite almond company... just kidding.  Yet we do need a little levity these days!

 

The March position report was released from the California Almond Board last Thursday and was very favorable by all accounts.  Shipments exceeded market expectations, crop receipts have all but concluded, and new sales of 174 million pounds were added on during the month.

 

Week 16 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. March shipments of 208 million pounds bring the industry to 5.9% ahead of this time last year.
  2. With committed sales increasing 20% last month based on a 2.55 billion pound crop, the industry is approximately 80% sold for the 2019 crop.  Some markets that have been closed are starting to show life again, such as India and Iran, with government support helping to get things moving again.
  3. Pricing remains extremely favorable and is among the lowest levels we have seen in many years.  What a great time to cover any remaining needs for this season!

Bearish Trends:

  1. The US Dollar remains strong against other currencies. With the exchange rates being what they are, some export markets are holding off due to reduced purchasing power.
  2. Much uncertainty remains throughout the markets due to the shutdown surrounding COVID-19, creating sluggishness.
  3. The first crop estimate was released today by Bountiful Ag.  Their estimate is based on a 2,179 lb./acre yield with 1.246 million acres in production, equaling 2.71 billion pounds.  With a potential 450 million pounds of carry out, a total supply in excess of 3.1 billion pounds of almonds may soon be upon us.

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