Almond Market Update - February 25, 2021

Almond bloom is in full swing now throughout the California growing regions.  This week's weather has been excellent following some scattered rain on Friday and Saturday.  Since then we have seen temperatures in the mid to high 60’s with the extended forecast showing much of the same for the next 10 days.  This is perfect for the bees to move throughout the orchards and help to do their part in pollinating the flowers.  Simple observations from the road show a high volume of bloom throughout the tree.

The almond market became very active over the last seven days and has had short spurts of activity as buyers and sellers work to find a common ground.  With the heavy activity came a brief retreat from the growers to review inventory and assess their positions. As a result, this week started off a little quieter than last.  But as we see confidence in the buyers with stable pricing we are also seeing continued demand perk up mid-week.     

As stated in last week’s report, we initially saw the markets react to the January shipment report with a softening on some varieties and sizes, but now it seems the bottom has been established.  Ingredients remain more stable as demand for manufactured value-added products continues to be strong. 

Week 8 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. With January shipments a disappointment, we do expect February to show a rebound and shipments continuing to be strong throughout the remainder of the crop year. 
2. Expect to see the market remain stable, adding confidence to buying activity with slightly firming prices where demand is higher on particular varieties, sizes, and ingredients.
3. Many packers are now full through April with any new demand being pushed to May production.

 Bearish Trends:

1. We continue to hear reports that export issues persist at the ports and will take some time to untangle.  This may continue for several months, slowing export sales down and putting a strain on the market.
2. There is still one billion pounds of uncommitted inventory and pressure will remain to continue to sell and ship!   
3. With another great bloom occurring, there is no reason to believe that we will not have another large crop once again coupled with a larger carry-over, the pressure will continue to be on the industry.

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