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Almond Market Update - February 19, 2021

While we see much of the Midwest and East Coast under extreme cold weather conditions, California 's weather has been very mild and we continue to see great bloom conditions.

The almond market has had a few days now to absorb the shipping report numbers from last week.  With the additional 156 million pounds received in January, that represents an increase in receipts of 26% over last January’s receipts, bringing the total receipts thus far to 3.025 billion pounds, 20% ahead of last year.  It is safe to assume the crop will approach the 3.1 billion pounds the industry has been assuming for some time now.  

We initially saw the markets react with a softening on some varieties and sizes, but now it seems the bottom has been found and prices are rebounding.  Ingredients remain more stable as demand for manufactured value added products continues to be strong. 

 

Week 7 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. While January shipments may not have met expectations, new sales of 205 million pounds exceeded most expectations and was only 2% lower than last January’s record sales month.
  2. Market levels went to the low end of the market, spurring on demand and buying activity.  The market has now bounced back and has given buyers confidence to lock in business.
  3. We have seen indications that may show January as a one off, with February bouncing back strong.  

 Bearish Trends:

  1. Export issues at the ports will take some time to untangle and should not be under estimated. This may continue for several months, slowing export sales down even further.
  2. If we assume the crop is close to 3.1 billion pounds, regardless of the sold position of 70% of total supply, the fact remains that there is still one billion pounds of uncommitted inventory and pressure will remain to continue to sell and ship!   
  3. With great bloom conditions in our midst, there is no reason to believe that we will not have the same issues in front of us for the next crop cycle. Even if the crop is smaller, the greater amount of a carry-out will more than make up for an off year.  

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