Almond Market Update - December 1, 2020

We trust everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving catching up with their “immediate” families.  We are truly a resilient nation and it was a time to reflect on this year and especially look forward to a New Year with fresh and new beginnings.

We have turned a corner this week following the Thanksgiving holiday.  Monday opened up with a stark contrast to the last few weeks.  We have seen the market wake up with activity in all our export markets.  Bids from traders have consistently increased over the past few days thus far.  While the increases have been modest (just a few pennies here and there), it is a welcome turn around, most importantly sending a signal of strong demand as a result of depleting inventories. 

It should be noted that the industry is at a higher percentage sold position at this point of the season than in normal years.   But then again, there is nothing normal about this year and one would suspect that will remain the case for some months to come. 

The crop continues to be received and is still on track to reach between 2.90 to 3.0 billion pounds this year.  We will need to keep the pressure on production, as is evident with any new prompt business looking at January deliveries at this point.

Week 49 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. We could not ask for better results than what we are seeing in consumption with everything going on.  Consumers continue to shop heavily as more are staying at home than at any point this year.  
2. With lower almond prices reaching their way to the retail shelves through either everyday prices or promotional activity, the volume will continue to be driven.
3. With the November shipment report coming out on December 15^th, we will have to wait a few extra days to confirm the next history breaking shipping report!  This will only help to establish a stronger foundation for firming market levels.

Bearish Trends:

1. We are starting to see the shipping lines play a negative role in how effectively the almond industry can move product around the world, with a reduction in available space due to routes reduced and backlogs at ports, it will be a challenge for some time.  
2. It has been a good run through the highest consumption period of the season, the real test is yet to come for the industry’s ability to grow consumption organically; and most importantly manufacturers keeping retails down at the shelf.
3. There are still significant segments of the industry in harm’s way due to the pandemic, namely food service.  This will remain a thorn in the market’s recovery for some time to come. 

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