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Almond Market Update - December 22, 2021

ofi is wishing everyone a Wonderful Holiday Season and a Happy New Year!  It has been an amazing year and this is a time to reflect and be grateful for our friends and family.

California is getting an early Christmas present with yet another winter storm system coming through.  We are expecting continued rain throughout the valley and snow in the Sierras is forecasted for the next 10 days.  While it does not solve our water problems it will help to put a dent in it!

Last week the Almond Board of California released the November shipment report.  The industry managed to ship 221 million pounds in November with 156 million pounds in exports down -20% from last year, while domestically the industry shipped 65 million pounds off -4% to last year. Looking at the major regions:

All Major Regions are down by -144 million (-19%)
Asia Pacific by -16%
Western Europe by -22%
Eastern Europe by -32%
Middle East by -16%
Africa by -46%
Mexico and Latin America by -28%

The industry is now -15% behind in shipments year to date with 872 million pounds shipped versus last year’s 1.026 billion pounds shipped. The industry will have some work ahead in the next 7 months of the crop year to make improvements in these numbers.

Next Shipment Report: January 11, 2022

Week 52 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. Despite the export shipments falling behind, the market remains very stable as buyers realize pricing is near the record lows of last year and growers are content to wait for the February bloom
  2. New sales for November were at 226 million pounds only slightly lower than last years’ 235 million pounds.  Demand is there and with a stabilizing market, buyers will continue to gain confidence to book their remaining 2022 needs.
  3. With the cost to produce in 2021 significantly higher for growers/processors, there may be greater resistance to prices falling any further in the New Year.  In fact, for specific sizes and varieties we have seen improved levels.

Bearish Trends:

  1. We continue to see shipping issues remain persist.  Whether it is domestic shortages of drivers or export shortages of containers, there remains no quick fix. Only time will tell just how long we will experience the supply chain issues hampering almonds and all other industries. These issues are to be expected through 2022.
  2. With the new variant now sweeping through the world once again, there are some expected market closures in countries that remain behind in vaccinations.
  3. It appears now the crop will most likely exceed the 2.8 billion pound NASS estimate.  Based on where the industry was at this time a year ago with 84% received, that would then give us roughly a 2.9 billion pound crop this year if all else remains equal.

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