Almond Market Update - December 16, 2020

We have finally had a change in weather this week, with a steady driving rain over the weekend and more headed our way this week.  Nothing like the Nor’easter they are expecting in the east this week, but nonetheless a welcome sight to us. 

The Almond Board of California released the November position report on Tuesday.  As of November 30th, crop receipts had risen by 600 million pounds to 2.424 billion pounds, almost 16% ahead of last year at this time.   We are getting closer to the projected 3.0 billion pounds as predicted by both the Objective & Subjective crop estimates this year.  

November shipments were another record month with 263 million pounds shipped.  This is well over last year’s November of 236 million pounds.   This leaves the industry at 21.5% ahead in shipments over LYTD.   Export had a record shipment month, up 11.6% with 195.5 million pounds shipped, while domestic sales were also a record 67.7 million pounds, up 11.5% over last November.

We have now shipped over 1.026 billion pounds in the first four months of the crop year and we have commitments of 1.004 billion pounds.   As of the end of November, this represents 68% of the crop as shipped and/or sold, should this be a 3.0 billion pound crop, and 60% of total supply.

Week 51 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. With November shipments of 263 million pounds shipped, we have hit a milestone of over one billion pounds now shipped in just four months of the 2020 crop year.
2. Export sales are leading the way 25% ahead of last year. The main contributors are a strong Indian market up 82% and a surprising China market up 33%. The EU has held strong as well up 12% ahead last year.
3. The industry added on an additional 235 million pounds in new sales for the month of November.  This speaks to the continued demand and interest that remains.

 Bearish Trends:

1. Pressure continues to mount with 600 million pounds received last month, this crop appears likely to be all of 3.0 billion pounds.
2. Following the heavy shipments of the fourth quarter, markets are now full. There is disruption within India that may be slowing movement, and some other export markets, such as the Middle East, have gone quiet. 
3. More lockdowns are headed our way due to COVID-19, as we see shipping lanes shut down and ports rolling back containers.  Shipping costs continue to increase.

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