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Almond Market Update - December 10, 2021

Weather in California has been dry, cold and foggy throughout much of the central valley. However, a large storm is now headed our way with expected precipitation starting Sunday and carrying on into next week. This is expected to bring with it several feet of Sierra snow. It has been long awaited and much needed after not having any significant rain since the atmospheric river we experienced in mid-October. Let’s hope this time, the storm door will open and stay open.

This week marks the 49th annual Almond Board Conference, in the newly renovated Sacramento Convention Center. Thus far, it has been wonderful to see so many familiar faces after a two year absence due to COVID. In this time, the industry harvested the largest crop in history in the midst of so much unknowns throughout the world. Yet last year we were able to market the crop and set record after record finally shipping over 2.8 million pounds of almonds around the world. Meanwhile, the industry has fought the uncertainty of most export markets, port congestion and our drought. However, it is not too high of a mountain to climb for a climber like our beloved industry.

“Rooted in Success” (this year’s ABC theme), should remind us all of where we have come from. In 2002 we harvested a Billion pounds, and no one thought the industry could handle it. Ten years later in 2012, the industry harvested 2.1 billion pounds and doubled our crop size. Now fast forward to today, we came off last year harvesting 3.1 billion pounds. The industry has come a long way in a very short period of time. We are certainly blessed to having been here to experience the growth and be a small part of it. Working with you all and so many great people over the years has been a great and humbling experience.

The future is bright for the industry. In these last two days, it has been proven once again, that the mighty Almond is resilient just as the industry itself is. We will work through the current issues that face us head on and come out the other side as we always do. 

Next Shipment Report: December 14, 2021 

Week 50 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. Almonds continue to be the most popular of all the tree nuts regardless of the regions found around the world.  The Almond board has strong marketing campaigns targeted at all the key markets around the world.
  2. Product innovation is especially robust as market levels remain such a great value.  Food manufacturers realize that when almonds are on the ingredient list, consumers gravitate to it, for all its taste and health benefits.
  3. Demand remains strong, once port disruptions are resolved the industry can begin to match last years record shipments. 

Bearish Trends:

  1. The ports will remain an issue for many more months.  As long as exports which represent over 70 % of the shipments, the industry will suffer with excess origin stocks even if the product has already been sold.
  2. Shipments for October were -30% down from last year and November is expected to be off another -20% YOY.  The industry is now running considerably behind last years shipping numbers.
  3. What may be even more alarming are the lack of commitments.  With an uncommitted inventory of 966 million pounds, this is over 540 million above where we were last year at this time.  For this time of the year, this is an all time high.  

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