Almond Market Update - December 4, 2021

We hope everyone enjoyed their long holiday weekend and were able to savor the time with family and friends. We certainly had some great weather for spending time outdoors with temperatures in the 70’s throughout most of the state.  Not exactly the winter weather one would expect for this time of the year, but we can only hope that rain and snow will be coming soon.

Following the long weekend, we have seen the market start to tick up once again. However, with the shipping report due out on December 14 and the Almond Board Conference next week, there is still some hesitancy on behalf of some buyers. There does not seem to be support from growers on lower pricing and they are comfortable to continue waiting despite the shipping reports. Buyers however feel that prices should be lower due to delayed shipments and increasing inventories. The industry is attempting to set a price floor and selling below the cost of growing, especially two years in a row, is not sustainable.

Many believe that the October shipment report would be the worst period when compared to last year’s number, which was the record for shipments in any month. No other month is expected to have that big of a gap from year to year and things can only get better from here. This along with concerns that the drought may have already done its damage to next year’s crop have created a hesitancy to sell. Only time will tell, but with the water situation only getting worse and higher temperatures one can understand the hesitancy to sell too early this year, especially into a weak market.

Yes the drought is a real issue in California and the sentiment rains down upon us every day. Until we see substantial changes to our weather pattern, it will remain in the forefront of the marketing of almonds this season.

Next Shipment Report: December 14, 2021 

Almond Board of California Annual Conference: December 7th - December 9th, 2021

Week 49 Update

Bullish Trends:

1. Almonds are priced very competitively and are a great value, remaining near record lows.  While we have seen other commodities rise exponentially, almonds continue to stay steady.
2. Demand for almonds also remains strong and continues to grow with consumers looking for almonds in their everyday diet.
3. Once shipping is sorted out, we will see the position report reflect better numbers.  Already the turn-around at the ports has increased by 40 % as reported this week.  Shipments are starting to move once again.

Bearish Trends:

1. While they have been able to off load and remove containers at the ports, it has not changed anything from a standpoint of exporting to date.
2. Prices seem to be sloppy, with limited offers in the marketplace. Questions will remain in the buyer’s mind of when the best time is to buy.
3. With each week that passes, the industry falls further behind in shipments.  The industry needs to continue to ship to not lose out on consumption.

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