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Almond Market Update - November 6, 2020

November has quickly sprung upon us. With daylight saving time, the clocks are rolled back and the days are short again.    

The almond market has been quiet once again throughout most markets this week.  We as processors are very busy producing, packing and shipping everything possible to meet current demand and deadlines for November and through December.  As market levels have once again reached what appears to be the bottom, there have been few transactions taking place showing once again that current demand is satisfied.  While even lower bids have come in, there is no grower support, as most of us growers and processors are content with our sold position and dare I say the bloom is right around the corner.  How time flies!

The October shipment report will be out next week on Thursday November 12th. Expectations are for something north of 290 million pounds.  Last year, we as an industry shipped over 265 million pounds.   Thus far the industry has been 32% ahead of last year.  This will most likely start to slow down a little.  The target will remain to stay +20% ahead of last year to avoid a large carryover for the next crop year.   All this can change of course, depending on the bloom and the next crop.

 

Week 45 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. With October shipments most likely setting the bar for a new record shipment month, November production and shipping will likely also follow suit.  
  2. California has not seen any significant rainfall in over 6 months now.  While it may be too early to mention a drought, we are coming off of last year with below average rain and snowfall.  50% of California’s water comes from our Sierra snowpack.  This could have a significant impact on the 2021 growing season.
  3. We are starting to hear from our retailers of increased consumer pantry loading once again, as fear of the pandemic increases this winter.  Tighter restrictions and less ability for outdoor dining will force more to stay at home.

Bearish Trends:

  1. We are already seeing shipments slowing down and supply in key markets full.  Demand has hit a wall in India and China.  As this is the peak selling season, it may be some time before demand comes back from some of these important markets.
  2. Last year consumption was less than 5% growth over the previous year.  Achieving 20% growth this year will be a challenge.
  3. One day COVID-19 will be suppressed, but for now it looms over our heads in great proportion.  We want everyone to remain safe through these winter months, please respect it for what it is.

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