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Almond Market Update - November 26, 2021

On behalf of the entire ofi team, we want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.  We are all thankful for your continued support and wish everyone a safe and healthy holiday season.

Following the slow down in shipments for export and domestic, we saw prices continue to drop through last week. By the beginning of this week, we began to see some firming signaling the market may have found it’s bottom. Only time will tell as we head into the holiday season.  

With the industry behind in shipments and commitments versus an historical average for the last 5 years by roughly -5%, we will have our work to do in the months ahead. Having said that, the demand is out there if shipments can be smoothed out and buyers and sellers can find a happy medium to conduct business within.

Next Shipment Report: December 14, 2021 

Week 48 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. With a decrease from the supply side, prices have remained very aggressive and remain the best value for the buck compared to other tree nuts.  With the heavy rain received in October, there may be more of a crop loss than realized for some of the growers and the late varieties.
  2. There is a pent up demand for almonds throughout all the export markets.  Once local stocks are depleted we will see this continue to grow.
  3. Already this week we are seeing more and more enquires.  With prices stabilizing this will lead to the buyer confidence needed to close business.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Unfortunately, shipping issues will not be a quick fix, already we can see how difficult it has been for the last 6 months and it seems worse today.
  2. Unless there is buyer confidence and the industry is able to supply the goods when the customer needs it most, demand destruction may occur.
  3. Only time will tell what the marketable receipts will be, but with the industry this far behind, handlers will need to react as though they have it to sell.  Just a reminder the objective estimate is 2.8 billion pounds, and there are many that believe it will grow beyond that.

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