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Almond Market Update - November 13, 2020

Almost overnight our Northern California weather has changed. We went from low 80’s last week to a beautiful high of 60’s.  We have had our first snow of the year with a foot of fresh powder and more on the way this weekend.

The market remained relatively quite this week once more with anticipation of yesterday’s shipping report.  There was some last minute business done as buyers took further positions prior to the report.

The October shipment report beat expectations  Last year, we as an industry shipped over 265 million pounds.   This October we shipped an astounding 309 million pounds.  This represents the largest month in almond history and blows last year’s record out by 44 million pounds a +16.6% increase.  Overall the industry is +25.31% ahead in total shipments YTD.

Commitments (sold, but not delivered) remain a healthy 1.033 billion pounds, 49% ahead of last year at this time.   We now have over 1.8 billion pounds received as an industry which reflects a +13.86% increase in the receipts compared to last October.  Remember the crop estimate is expected to be 3.0 billion pounds.

 

Week 46 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. With October shipments setting the bar with a new all-time record and November / December production completely full, the table is set for continued growth in consumption this year.  
  2. There are still many customers that are uncovered, so for those naysayers that continue to tout there is no more selling to be done, you may be pleasantly surprised in the months ahead as more business remains to be done.
  3. November and December production are almost full as the industry works overtime to get orders filled for the holidays and New Year.

Bearish Trends:

  1. The pipelines are full and inventory is backing up now in key markets. With exchange rates and weakening economies, this will impact consumption.
  2. The industry went from 33% ahead of last year to 25% ahead of last year in the course of one month.  This will continue to trend down as these record shipments may not be sustainable.
  3. COVID-19 continues to rage through many countries including our own.   It is so difficult to forecast future demand with this start stop economy of ours. 

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