Almond Market Update - November 5, 2021

November is quickly upon us!  This year it actually feels like November weather here in California.  We have had patchy follow-up rainfall after the “Atmospheric River” of a week ago and more patchiness is expected over the next few days.  Thankfully, our fire season has officially come to an end.  Now, as the aftermath sets in as with so much ground cover burnt away, concerns for mud slides and debris fields will need to be watched out for.  As Roseanne Roseannadanna always said, “it’s always something”.

The market for almonds continues to try and find itself. Limited buyers and sellers are participating at these still historically low prices.  As we enter the holiday season not much is expected to change.  While storage space may be tight, this will be sorted out as we ship almonds through the next two months.  By January, this will be worked out for most suppliers.  Additionally, January represents the wettest month for California and by then we will have a clear picture on the drought concerns for the 2022 growing season. With some luck, this winter will bring some much-needed rain. While some rain will not end our drought, it could give us a respite from the ever-worsening drought conditions growers are seeing.  It’s also important to remember California depends on getting 50% of its water from the Sierra snowpack. Snow levels will need to be followed just as close as rain and because of this I will be personally checking the snow level out next weekend, as some ski resorts are now officially open. 

Each day we are seeing the same national news regarding the ports and the tremendous back up of containers sitting in storage waiting to be picked up.  This does not even account for the hundreds of container ships still waiting to deliver even more goods.  It is very obvious that this will not be sorted out any time soon.

Some of the Growers that were reluctant to sell too early as they were unsure of the crop are now willing sellers.  However, some buyers are now hesitating to buy or are covered for the short term.  Some that are covered through December are now choosing to hold off despite the lower pricing levels.  The November shipping report could help to settle the market and allow business to begin again.

Next Shipment Report: November 11, 2021 

Week 45 Update

Bullish Trends:

1. Even with the smaller crop this year pricing has remained the best value of any of the other tree nuts. Almonds are still the number one choice amongst consumers.  
2. Production through January is full for the packers, demand continues to be strong, if not for shipping woes we could be in line with record shipments from the previous year.
3. The industry remains resilient and will work with the transportation industry, as everyday more is being done by industry experts to address these issues.

Bearish Trends:

1. With the October shipment numbers due out next Thursday, they are sure to be off compared to the previous year’s 309 record (the largest month in history).
2. As the market levels trend down it will take some price consistency to restore confidence with the buyers.
3. Along with pricing, shipping issues continue to move in the wrong direction making it a buyer’s market at this point. This may lead to further weakening.

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