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Almond Market Update - October 8, 2020

The California wild fires remain on everyone’s mind this week, as Pacific Gas and Electric announces additional power cut offs to over 200,000 residents (North East region of the state) throughout the “danger zone” for several days to come.  This is meant as a precaution that has it’s own political consequences considering its effectiveness thus far.   Our air quality remains for the most part unchanged with poor to moderate levels depending on your location in the state and which way the wind is blowing.

Early morning sweeping continues on the orchard floors as the later varieties continue to be picked up and sent to the Huller/Shellers. 

The September position report will be released this Friday, October 9th.  It is expected to be a record shipment for the month of September.  This will provide a strong foundation for continued shipments needed to successfully market the 2020 almond crop.

The market has become quiet with anticipation of tomorrow’s release of the position report.  This has led to a good purchasing opportunity as we wait to see the market react.

 

Week 41 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. With the smaller sizes continuing to accumulate through sizing during processing of Nonpareil, we see a wider pricing spread growing between the larger and smaller sizes.  
  2. September shipments will be a record this year like none seen previously, putting the industry on pace with where it needs to be.  With continued low market pricing, the demand and consumption should continue to match supply.
  3. Growth in ingredient sales continues with interest in plant based proteins for beverages, yogurts, nut butters and much more! 

Bearish Trends:

  1. Prices remain low and may continue to have additional pressure as markets become saturated and demand slows in the fourth quarter.
  2. Record shipments thus far have been a function of timing.  Now that the pipelines are replenished, the demand that has been enjoyed may not be sustainable at these levels.
  3. Some export markets are already having to close due to COVID-19 as this may persist for the foreseeable future.

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