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Almond Market Update - October 29, 2020

Just when we were feeling the worst of the wildfires were behind us, another major one breaks out.   We had some winds this week that reportedly reached over 79 miles per hour causing a fire that has so far resulted in over 50,000 people evacuated in the southland.  Over 4 million acres have now burned this summer with over 10,000 structures damaged or destroyed.  There are over 14,000 brave firefighters currently battling these fires throughout the state. 

The almond market has been a little quiet this week, no doubt due to the large bookings we have already seen.  Processors are very busy, producing the orders and shipping everything possible to meet current demand and deadlines.  Sellers are content to hold off on further sales right now not wanting to participate in these lower levels, as buyers have also retreated hoping for even lower pricing later. 

October is now in the books!  I am not sure where the month went but it is all but over and we are expecting shipments to be another record.  Last year, we as an industry shipped over 265 million pounds.   The October shipment report will be released on November 11th, expect to see that number shattered once again as we will need to keep the pedal to the metal as they say in the Hot Rod world.

 

Week 44 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. October shipments will be another record month putting our industry over 30% ahead of the same time period from last year.  This will represent the largest shipping month of all time and most likely for the year as well.  
  2. November is already full for production.  While it will not be like October, it will still match or exceed last year shipments and maintain a steady demand that is in place.
  3. We are seeing consumer take away at the retail shelves as colder weather is driving demand and the holidays are upon us.  The fourth quarter will be a strong period for the snack nut industry, with promotional pricing hitting the shelves.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Reports of supply arriving to India are already foreshadowing a market drop with the large supply potentially exceeding demand for the time being. 
  2. Big crops get bigger!  Current industry expectations of between 2.90 - 3.00 billion pounds is a lot to deal with and will keep pressure on pricing well into the fourth quarter of next year!
  3. COVID-19 has not magically disappeared.  We want everyone to be safe through these winter months, and please do not let your guard down.

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