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Almond Market Update - January 7, 2021

We wish everyone a Happy New Year as we look forward to a healthy and prosperous 2021.  

The almond market has come back from the holidays firmer following the last two weeks of 2020.  Demand continues to be strong especially in Europe and the Middle East.  December shipments are expected to be another record month as the trend continues into the new year.  With the December position report due out next Tuesday January 12, we expect much anticipation this week leading up to the report. 

Other factors to be considered will be our January rainfall and Sierra snowpack.  As these are currently behind the average, they can be made up in a hurry.  As an example, it was only three seasons ago that we experienced 28 days in a row of snow in the Sierra’s.  January is typically when California gets most of it’s rain.  Following January all attention will turn to the February bloom.

 

Week 1 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. By the end of November we hit the one billion pounds shipped mark for the current crop year.  Expect to see December shipments pushing close to 250 million pounds for the month.

  2. Export demand continues to demonstrate the popularity of almonds and the increased consumption around the world at these low price levels.

  3. With the industry well sold, the firming trend also continues.  This may last for some time to come.

 Bearish Trends:

  1. Next week’s crop receipts will be another checkpoint to determine if the 2020 crop does indeed reach the 3.0 billion pound estimate, or potentially exceed it.

  2. The firming trend may have been necessary in November and December to give the processors a chance to catch their breath, but if sales decreased in December this may take some momentum out of the market. 

  3. Who would have thought last March, we would still be dealing with COVID-19 world-wide as we are today.  Shutdowns continue to be in play.   Please stay safe and do not let your guards down.


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