Almond Market Update - January 27, 2021

What a difference a week makes.  One of the most significant changes we have seen in a week is our weather.  We went from 70 degree temperatures last  week to the strongest winter storms we have seen all year.  Mr. Winter is trying to make it up to us all in one week!  The Sierra’s are expecting an accumulation of 100 inches of snow this week alone.  We have had a series of storms come through since last Friday and will continue for several days. This has brought both the water and the all-important snow pack we have needed and been waiting for all year.   With the bloom just 10 days or so away, timing could not be better.

Buying activity has stepped up this week as the holiday rush is now well behind us, California sellers are more inclined to work with firm bids from buyers.  This has led to increased activity.  

With the bloom right around the corner, this has always been a good time to purchase any needs remaining for the crop year.  With prospects of a good bloom in the air and a market level today that is very advantageous, the risk of higher prices following the bloom (should it be a poor one) outweighs the risk of prices falling much further. 

The next shipping report will be released on February 11^th from the Almond Board of California.

Week 4 Update:

Bullish Trends:

1. After five months of the 2020 crop year all being record shipments, January is shaping up to fall in line as well. Expect to see a shipping report north of 230 million pounds.
2. Most packers are now completely full for production with February through the first half of March in the books. This is a great indicator that with the holiday demand over, consumption continues.
3. With price levels so advantageous, increased innovation continues and growing interest in plant-based proteins remains trending strong into the foreseen future.

 Bearish Trends:

1. New January sales have been slow for the industry following the holidays. This may lead to less than stellar shipping records in the months ahead.
2. With some California sellers having gone off the market last month, it seems they are all coming back at the same time leading to a muddy market and disorganized pricing structures. This has led to a lack of confidence for some buyers.
3. Back up at the ports with a lack of vessels and containers may lead to weakening shipping reports. Time is not on our side. Once the opportunities are missed there is no making it up.

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