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Almond Market Update - January 15, 2021

California weather is on everyone’s mind this week as we reach the middle of January and will hit 70 degrees in the central valley.  While it may be enjoyable for us humans, it is not advantageous for our plant life.     There is little to no precipitation in the forecast for the next 10 days, right when we would be expecting it and needing it the most.  Stay tuned.

The Almond Board released the December position report on Tuesday.  First and foremost the crop receipts jump out demonstrating additional receipts in December of 454 million pounds, bringing the total to 2.868 billion lbs. for the year.  The estimates of 3.0 billion pounds are now firmly within reach and we will likely see this crop exceed that number by the time it is all said and done.

December also represents the fifth consecutive month of record shipments as we shipped 256.9 million pounds as an industry. This brings the total YTD shipments to 1.284 billion pounds, 22% ahead of last year at this time.  With total commitments standing at 921 million pounds, the industry has already sold 74% of the crop and 64% of the total supply.  This is assuming a 3.05 billion pound crop. 

 

Week 2 Update:

Bullish Trends:

  1. Domestic shipments for December were 60.76 million pounds, up 5.68%, and exports were an amazing 196 million pounds, 32% ahead of last December.
  2. Additional sales of 172 million pounds were added on in December. This is 4% more than last December, typically a quiet month for sales.
  3. The industry is well sold and in a good position, proving once again its resilience.  No matter the size of the crop, almonds are versatile and are in demand across all the geographies.

 Bearish Trends:

  1. We see that the crop receipts now bare out that it will indeed reach the 3.0 billion pound estimate, or potentially exceed it.
  2. In order to keep this demand going and meet + 20% growth each month, the industry can barely afford to miss any targets.
  3. Export shipments have now become a serious issue as containers continue to get rolled back week after week missing target ship dates.  This may continue for many months and ultimately impact the export markets.   

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