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Pistachio Market Update - September 2023

The 2022/23 pistachio season concluded with positive shipments into emerging markets signaling a positive increase in consumer preferences for pistachios. Expectations for the 2023/24 crop year indicate a substantial increase to global pistachio production, mainly driven by larger crops in both the US and Iran. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council’s (INC) May 2023 forecast projected a significant rise in global production for the 2023 crop year, reaching 1.022 million metric tons, a 37% increase compared to the previous year’s 747,000 metric tons. Furthermore, the global total supply is forecasted to increase from 1.058 million metric tons to 1.238 million metric tons, representing a 17% growth.

August pistachio shipments remained steady at 69.3 million pounds, showing only a marginal increase of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. However, when considering the entire year, the total shipments concluded on a strong note, reaching 901.5 million pounds. This represents an increase of 7.8% compared to the 836.5 million pounds reached at the end of the previous year. The primary driver of this year’s growth in shipments has been exports, which finished at an impressive 652.4 million pounds, representing an increase of 13.7% year-over-year. In contrast, domestic shipments continued their downward trend, concluding at 249.1 million pounds, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%. 

The pricing for the current pistachio crop remains firm, with limited market activity as buyers adopt a cautious approach, awaiting more information about the quality of the incoming crop. Initial reports point to good quality, though there are indications of lower than expected yields. We will continue to monitor the situation as the season progresses. 

The estimated carry-out stands at 163.8 million pounds, making it one of the lowest in recent years. This has heightened anticipation regarding how pistachios will perform this year, especially within a market experiencing increased competition from other nuts and consumer belt tightening.

 

Bullish Trends:
• Shipments are now up 7.8% year-over-year, driven by exports.
• Carry-out inventory at the lowest in years (-54% versus last year).
• Pent-up demand from sideline buyers awaiting new crop quality and quantity.

Bearish Trends:
• Domestic shipments are down 5.2% year-over-year and on a downward trend.
• Overabundance of lower priced nut substitutes flooding nut market at a time of consumer belt-tightening.
• Both USA and Iran are expecting larger crops leading to increased global supply.


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