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Pistachio Market Update - End of Year 2022

The Administrative Committee For Pistachios (ACP) released the November shipment report on December 15th and showed California 2022 crop receipts of 884 million pounds. This should be the final 2022 crop size and is about 25% lower than initial expectations and 24% lower than last year’s crop of 1.16 billion pounds. This year’s carry in was 354 million pounds, 70 million pounds larger than last year’s 284 million pounds. Considering the smaller crop and larger carry in, total supply for 2022 crop is 1.238 billion pounds, which is 212 million pounds or 14.6% smaller than last year’s total supply of 1.450 billion pounds. 

Quality of this year’s crop was poorer, with higher percentages of shelling stock. As a result, good quality Inshell has been harder to find out of CA. Iran also harvested a much smaller 2022 crop and offers from Iran have been nonexistent into overseas markets the majority of this crop season. Limited availability of good quality inshell from both US and Iran has led to a firm inshell market, with recent trades reported as high as $3.70 FAS for Inshell Ex 21/27. However, kernel markets remain soft due to higher amounts of shelling stock.

Now that the calendar has turned and we have entered into 2023, there is already industry talk of the potential for a much larger 2023 crop. Chill updates have been circulated, showing winter growing conditions have so far been nearly ideal. Bud set and growth also looks good and early talk is for a 2023 crop with the potential between 1.20 and as high as 1.40 billion pounds.

This will be an interesting year for the industry to navigate with low availability of good quality inshell remaining from 2022 crop, but much higher availability likely to be harvested this fall.

Bullish Trends:
• The 2022 US Pistachio crop is 25% smaller than expected.
• Iran’s 2022 crop is also significantly smaller due to frost damage.
• Currency exchanges have improved, bringing in renewed demand from some export markets.

Bearish Trends:
• Winter growing conditions have so far been ideal for the upcoming 2023 crop.
• It is likely that both US and Iran will have larger crops in 2023.
• Global consumption has slowed across nuts.

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