The 2022 pistachio harvest began in California with the earliest fields a few weeks ago and is now in full swing. Record heat is forecasted for the Central Valley over the next couple of weeks, which will help to accelerate the harvest. At this point in time, industry sentiment varies widely on the size of the 2022 crop, from sub-1.0 billion pounds to high estimates of 1.2 billion pounds. In just a few short weeks, we will have a much better feel for the size of this crop. Early indications are that sizing is slightly better than last year, but still smaller than an average year.
Outlook on Iran’s 2022 crop has trended down steadily since the INC conference in May. At the conference, Iran’s 2022 crop was forecasted at 110,000 MTs, which was down from their 2021 crop of 135,000 MTs. At this point, it looks like their 2022 crop will not even make 100,000 MTs. As a reminder, their 2021 crop of 135,000 MTs was considered a failure due to frost.
With Iran’s crop significantly impacted, the outcome of the US crop will be the main determinant of price moving forward. A crop of under 1.0 billion pounds would likely lead to bullish pricing, while a crop like last year’s 1.16 billion pounds or larger would likely have a negative impact on pricing.
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