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Almond Market Update - September 15, 2022

With over 10 days of temperatures reaching as high as 115 degrees in many areas of the state, we finally had a break in the weather over the weekend. Temperatures are back to the normal mid-80’s to low-90’s for this time of year. Some areas even experienced trace amounts of rainfall this week, and while it was nothing too substantial, it was nice to see something falling from the sky other than ash. Southern California experienced a much different situation this past week. Hurricane Kay brought heavy rains causing floods and landslides in San Bernardino County and the surrounding areas with over one inch of rain per hour reported.  

Last Friday the Almond Board of California released the August shipment report. This reflects the first month of the new crop year. The final number for the carry-in has been placed at 836.8 million pounds. With an estimated 2.6 billion pounds to be harvested minus a two percent loss and exempt this will bring the total supply for the 2022/23 crop year to 3.384.8 billion pounds. Last year, we had a total supply of 3.352.1 billion pounds to start the 2021/22 crop year with.

August was a record month for the almond industry having shipped over 228 million pounds. Historically speaking, this was the strongest August we’ve ever had. This puts a healthy dent in the carry-over as we continue to harvest the new crop well into October. Compared to last year, the industry is 10% ahead. Export shipments were 162.85 million pounds, which is 15.7% ahead of last year, while domestic shipments were slightly off at 65.45 million poundsdown 1.7% versus last year. This is six months in a row of “domestic” declining shipments trending the wrong direction. 

Having said that, the crop is shrinking as well. Crop receipts after the first month are down 15.2% versus the same time last year. Thus far, 264.2 million pounds have been harvested while last year at this time 311.5 million pounds had already been harvested; something to pay close attention to for the months ahead. If it starts to take on the appearance of an even smaller crop than expected, growers may hold off the market until a better understanding is established.  

 

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Position Report: October 11, 2022
  • Position Report: November 11, 2022
  • Almond Board Conference: December 5 through December 8, 2022

Week 38 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. With the crop coming in smaller (15% less harvested after the first month), and strong August shipments up 10%, the industry is off to a great start.
  2. There is no telling when the California drought will end, and as a result, the industry may have to assume that future crop sizes will continue to trend downward as well.
  3. Despite domestic shipments trending downward, on a long-term basis we see continued interest and development of plant-based products continuing to grow far into the future.

Bearish Trends:

  1. The industry is trailing in crop sales, despite new sales in August of 614 million pounds. Compared to last year’s 28% sold, we are currently at 25% of the total supply sold.
  2. Commitments now stand at 614 million pounds versus LYTD at 716 million pounds (25% behind).
  3. With more almonds to sell this year overall, the industry will need to stay ahead of shipments throughout the year and unlock the mystery of negative domestic trends.

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