Almond Market Update - August 4, 2022

Weather this week in California was a little unpredictable with scattered showers on Monday in some areas of the valley. Nonetheless, it was insignificant as temperatures have remained in the mid 90’s-100's in much of the growing area.  While in some areas the harvest has just begun, some are still irrigating their trees prior to harvest, if they have the water to do it!

The market has been relatively quiet this week as some EU buyers test the market with below market bids on standards, only to be met with little to no reaction from growers. Despite a larger than hoped for carry-in, which will be somewhere in the area of 800 million pounds, growers are still reluctant to lower prices below operating costs and are willing to wait as they anticipate a smaller crop this year. With the objective estimate forecasted at 2.60 billion pounds, this would fall short of this year’s crop of 2.91 billion pounds, if in fact the estimate turns out to be the case.

Drought conditions remain on everyone’s mind in California, with many reminders being shared throughout the news cycle, as well as messages flashing on the freeways!  

July did mark the final month of the 2021/2022 crop year. The industry stands at 2.46 billion pounds shipped for the year and would like to close out the year with a strong July shipment report, anything north of 225 million pounds would be ideal. Unfortunately, with the port closure the week before last, we will all have to wait for the final numbers.

Upcoming Milestones:

• Position Report: August 12, 2022 

Week 32 Update

Bullish Trends:

• Lower production for the new crop year would lend itself well to strengthening the almond market and bringing growers out of the red to the black!
• Additionally, with continued drought conditions and a very hot summer, the trees show no signs of improving. Unfortunately, this could lead to similar conditions for next year as well.
• While everything else has continued to increase in pricing and inflation seems to be sticking around for some time to come, almonds have remained relatively low in comparison.

Bearish Trends:

• The Port of Oakland shut down two weeks ago (due to the AB5 protests), may have dashed the industries dreams of a big finish to July pushing the carry-out a bit larger than hoped.
• With inflationary pressures, a strengthening US dollar, and the continued war between Russia and Ukraine, Europe may remain a bit sluggish as we have seen demand weaken over the last few months.
• With harvest just having started, it is too early for predictions of crop production, quality or sizing just yet; we are harvesting 1.3 million acres after all. 

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