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Almond Market Update - August 18, 2022

We have had an ongoing heat wave over the last 7 days. The forecast calls for more of the same with 105+ degree temperatures continuing through next week as well. 

Last Friday, the Almond Board of California released the July position report which reflects the final shipping month of the 2021/2022 crop year. The industry only managed to ship 169.4 million pounds for the month, which marked the weakest shipment month of the crop year. This was mainly brought on by the slowdown that took place in July at the California ports. Export shipments were off  -29% versus last year with 112 million pounds shipped compared to 158 million pounds the year before. Domestically, it was equally as disappointing with 57 million pounds shipped compared to 71 million pounds last year, down 19%.

The industry finished the year with 2.64 billion pounds shipped. This is -9% behind the previous year’s record shipments of 2.9 billion pounds. More importantly, the industry will carry-out 838 million pounds, which is larger than the 2001 crop year, when we harvested 825 million pounds as an industry. What a difference a decade makes!

There is a bit to unpack here. As we transition into the new crop, the industry remains undersold. Assuming a 2.60 billion pound crop, (-2% loss and exempt), with a 838 million pound carry-out will result in 3.386 billion pounds of marketable almonds for the 2022/23 crop year,  which is just 85 million pounds shy of this year. However, last year at this time, the industry had already sold 441 million pounds of new crop, this year we stand at 298 million pounds sold, which is just about 11% of the new crop. The industry has some work to do!

 

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Position Report: September 9, 2022
    Position Report: October 11, 2022

Week 34 Update

Bullish Trends:

  • Almonds represent a great value and at a time when everything else seems to see high price spikes, almonds remain the go to nut for its versatility as an ingredient. 
  • Consumers certainly believe in the health halo surrounding almonds, as the nut continue to trend for their nutritional, “good for you” health benefits and snacking attributes!
  • Many manufacturers have built their brands around almonds and will continue to do so for all these reasons. The industry remains strong because of its commitment to supply almonds around the world.

Bearish Trends:

  • The July shipments were a disappointment and could be a glimpse at what immediate future months may look like. Logistics nightmares continue as exports continue to falter.
  • Exchange rates and a strengthening US dollar have added to a lack of demand from many markets, at a time the industry should be selling.
  • Despite record market levels, demand destruction seems to be prevalent, seemingly caused by market uncertainties across the globe.

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