Almond Market Update - July 14, 2022
California continues to head into the heat of summer with triple digit temperatures throughout much of the growing areas. We are expecting this to remain through the extended 10 day forecast. Growers are monitoring their irrigation practices and will be applying accordingly one last time prior to their harvest, depending on location. Harvest will be starting any day now in the lower region, but truly kicking in within the next two to three weeks throughout the rest of the state.
The big news this week is the release of the Almond Board of California's June position report. On the heels of last week’s objective forecast of 2.60 billion pounds, the industry was able to ship 278.60 million pounds for June. This is the strongest month for the year and is a +26% increase over last June’s shipment numbers. With these two bullish reports back to back, we have started to see some market firming across most varieties and sizes.
The industry now stands at 2.46 billion pounds shipped for the year, leaving us trailing last year’s record shipments by -7.65% year over year. The expected carry-out now has dramatically shifted in just a few short months from what was once being characterized as a one billion pound carry-out to now a much more manageable 765 million pounds (give or take 10 million pounds) depending of course on what the industry is able to ship in July.
Upcoming Milestones:
- Position Report: August 12, 2022
Week 29 Update
Bullish Trends:
- With the market levels being where they are, almonds represents a great value and remain the consumer’s choice not only for snacking, but also as a sought after ingredient in so many products up and down the grocery retail aisles.
- Despite our logistics woes, the industry has been able to manage through them. While it will remain an issue for some time, it is not as prevalent as it was for the first half of the year.
- Supply is becoming closer in line with demand now and with a carry-out of a possible 750 million pounds and a new crop of 2.6 billion pounds we may be marketing a smaller crop for 2022/23 than last year.
Bearish Trends:
- Economic news may play a larger role than one may expect with 10% inflationary pressure, gas is 59% higher than a year ago, and grocery prices continuing to increase at an expected 8.5%. Consumers may be forced to buy the basics.
- The Euro has now fallen to the same level as the US dollar, weakening the EU’s purchasing power by as much as 35% versus a year ago. This may impact export sales to Europe in the months ahead.
- For now, the industry and the market will live with the objective estimate, and the harvest will be closely watched as it comes in to see how it compares to last year.
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