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Almond Market Update - July 1, 2022

Happy Fourth of July! 

Summer heat hit hard this week with triple digit temperatures up and down the state. This has put a great deal of pressure on growers to step up irrigation to keep the trees from stressing, while keeping in mind the limited resources available. This is a very important time for the growing season with another month to go before harvest. News on the street is that with minimal allocations available, there is not enough water to go around. Some growers will only have access to their well water and in some areas the condition of their wells are in question. The next five days appear to offer some relief from the highs of 108 to more suitable temps in the low 90’s, which will help before we see another heat wave arrive next weekend.

The industry waits in anticipation for the objective estimate due next Friday, followed by the June position report the following week. As we saw in previous months, the last three position (shipping) reports having been their strongest of the crop year. The industry has done a great job of playing catch-up after a dismal beginning of the crop year due to the logistics nightmares we all saw and had to endure. We have averaged 249 million pounds per month shipped over the last three months. This has led to shipments of 2.185 billion pounds to date. It is conceivable that we may end the crop year shipping close to 2.69 billion pounds just 7% behind last year’s industry record shipments of 2.89 billion. This industry never ceases to amaze!  But we are not there yet, and we should not get ahead of ourselves.

Finally, as a reminder, with the objective estimate being released by NASS next week, the market is anticipating a 2.80 billion pound crop. This will be the bench mark for comparison to the report itself. We look forward to reporting the exciting news either way!

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Objective Estimate: July 8, 2022
  • Position Report: July 12, 2022

Week 27 Update

Bullish Trends:

  • With over 600 million pounds of committed inventory sold of current crop, but undelivered, the pipeline is well filled for the immediate future.
  • Export shipments while still difficult have improved to the point to manageable at this time.  Reports of domestic transports have also improved and cost of shipping has begun to relax despite higher fuel surcharges.  
  • June shipments are expected to be another strong month and could be the strongest of the year. 

Bearish Trends:

  • Uncommitted inventory is over 660 million pounds over 52% above last year at this time.  A great deal of work remains.
  • High inflation is putting a drag on demand throughout the world markets.  Reluctance may remain in future commitments until a more settled market becomes apparent.
  • Despite strong gains in the recent months, the industry will still have the largest carry-out in history while harvesting potentially the third largest crops in almond history.

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