Almond Market Update - June 17, 2022

Our California weather just doesn’t know what it wants to do. Temperatures dropped down to 50 degrees late in the week and the expected high today is 74 in the mid-valley; 20 degrees below the norm for this time of the year. These temperatures are expected to last through Sunday, and by Tuesday we are expected to be right back to the triple digits. These cooling trends are a blessing as dry conditions continue to prevail; every little bit goes a long way to conserving our precious water resources. 

Last week the Almond Board of California released the May position report, and it was another blessing for the industry. After the previous six months of logistical nightmares, the industry has been able to play catch-up. Having shipped 748 million pounds in just the last three months, the industry is at 2.186 billion pounds shipped year-to-date. While down 10.7% compared to last year, we must recall that this is a smaller crop than the previous year topping out at 2.91 billion pounds versus the 3.1 billion 2020-2021 crop (200-million-pound difference). This brings us closer to balancing supply with demand. If logistical issues continue to get ironed out, the rest will take care of itself.

We are now just a few weeks away from the objective estimate being released by the USDA. The estimate will be of great interest comparing to the rest of the market sentiment, including the NASS subjective report, which estimates an even smaller crop size than this year at 2.8 billion pounds for 2022-2023.

Upcoming Milestones:

• Objective Estimate: July 8, 2022
• Position Report: July 12, 2022
   

Week 25 Update

Bullish Trends:

1. As we saw last week, the industry added new sales of 116.8 million pounds during the month of May, a 12% increase over last May’s 102.9 million pounds. Most importantly this points to the continued demand for almonds.
2. Interest has been strong since the shipping report was released, as pricing remains aggressive as well. An increase in new crop interest is also starting to take shape with grower support through the fourth quarter.
3. While logistics issues continue, improvements are heading in the right direction as we see the monthly shipments continue to improve.

Bearish Trends:

1. Domestic sales continue to trend negatively, down 4.2% compared to a year ago. This may speak to the economic trends as inflationary pressures are causing consumers to watch their spending.
2. As the U.S. market is the largest single market for almonds, it is a critical component to the success of the almond industry.
3. Due to inflationary pressures, the cost to grow increases daily. Coupled with a drought for three years in a row, the industry is facing challenging times.

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