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Almond Market Update - May 6, 2022

California weather has been a little fickle this week with temperatures rising one day to the 90’s, only to be in the mid-60’s the next. The Sierra’s are even expecting rain and snow on Mother’s Day. Hopefully the orchard trees do not get too confused.

With the snowpack quickly depleting (27% to normal this week versus 32% just last week), California is going to struggle for water and residents will be put to the test to conserve. We are now being asked to reduce 35% in outdoor water use. Our reservoirs are close to 70% to normal for this time of year, which sounds promising, but these reservoirs are designed to store the snow-melt. Since there is not much left for that to occur, that existing 70% will soon be depleted.

March’s position report was positively received by the industry, in fact, March was the largest shipment month of the year at 245 million pounds. Although this year was significantly short of last March’s (2021) 267 million pounds, in the face of all the logistics issues plaguing the globe, it was a reminder that the demand for almonds remains strong. In fact, we have seen modest firming throughout the month. With April’s position report coming out next week, we will see if the trend continues!

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Shipment Report: May 11, 2022
  • Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2022
  • Objective Estimate: July 8, 2022
     

Week 19 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. Based on last week’s NASS reports, nursery orders and plantings are beginning to slow down. It appears that crop sizes will be flattening out for now.
  2. For the last few weeks, we have seen prices firming while at the same time shipments have also picked up. These two factors are trending in the right direction.
  3. Market levels remain at great value and despite the cost of everything else around us rising at unprecedented rates, we expect that demand will continue to grow.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Historically speaking, shipments from April through July (the end of the crop year), trend down each month; March may stand alone.
  2. Logistics is what we may remember mostly of the 2021-2022 crop year and how it brought the agricultural industry to a standstill...
  3. The industry may be stuck for a while, unable to grow year after year. Market levels may remain flat for many months to come until logistics improve and supply can be brought back into balance with demand.

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