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Almond Market Update - May 13, 2022

sIt was another strange weather week in California, as we saw some rain clouds move throughout the week, bringing patches of rain in select areas. We also saw additional snow in the Sierra’s which required chain controls above 5,000 feet. On the valley floor, we had a low of 38 degrees; these are unseasonable temperatures for this time of year. The forecast predicts 94 degrees by this upcoming Saturday, go figure.

The exciting news for the week however is the release of Almond Board of California’s April position report. The industry shipped 245 million pounds of almonds in April, which marks the second month in a row beating expectations. With three months remaining for the current crop year, the industry may be on track to bring the carry-out down from earlier estimates of 950 million pounds to a very conceivable and more manageable 860 million pounds, especially if the industry can continue to these shipping levels or something similar.

Export shipments for April were up +1.7% for the month, at 183 million pounds, compared to last year’s April shipments of 180 million pounds. Meanwhile domestic shipments were disappointing at 62.43 million pounds, down 10.9% compared to last April’s 70.0 million pounds.

Overall, shipments are now -13.48% behind last year at this time with 1.928 billion pounds shipped year to date versus 2.229 billion pounds. Yet, we are trending positive with new sales in April of 168 million pounds, up from last year’s new April sales of 163 million pounds.

 

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: June 10, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 8, 2022
 

Week 20 Update

Bullish Trends:

  1. Early estimates for the 2022 crop appear to be trending down; initial estimates by one of the growers is putting the crop at 80 billion pounds for the 2022-2023 crop.
  2. With a strong April shipment of 245 million pounds, trending in the right direction could lead us to a smaller carry-in than what has being expected.
  3. Meanwhile, the market remains at excellent levels, leading to more innovation every day as consumers continue to look for plant-based, “heathier for you” food products.

Bearish Trends:

  1. While March and April have shown a ray of hope, the carry-over will still lead to the largest in history for the industry and put pressure on shipments come August through October during the new crop harvest.
  2. Expectations for logistics issues continue throughout the end of the year which may continue to hamper the fight to balance supply with demand.
  3. With a new crop coming, that is expected to be as large as the last, the industry will have more almonds to sell than ever before. The industry must continue to sell into the new crop now with no hesitation. 

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