Almond Market Update - April 7, 2022

We are experiencing unseasonably warm weather this week in the California growing region. Temperatures will hit over 95 degrees today and continue through the weekend. This heat wave is over 20 degrees warmer than typical temperatures for this time of year. With an already low snowpack in the Sierra’s, the high temperatures will expedite the snow melting, with it all but gone in the next 30 to 60 days.

Reports throughout the west are shocking to see as lakes and riverbeds dry up to conditions we have not experienced in modern times. The drought is gaining attention on a national level, recently making national news, although these concerns are nothing new to locals and those in the industry. What this means and how this will affect our lives in the west is yet to be known. The issue is no longer just about conservation; it has become much more serious, as it will affect our way of living for the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, the almond market remains firm in the face of rising costs to grow, and intense shipping and exporting conditions. With the shipment report coming out next week, suppliers are happy to wait for the report on Tuesday as many are hopeful for a better report than the past three months. It appears April saw improvements with shipping for exports, as some space has opened for the industry. This is not to say that things are getting better overall, but new tactics and a willingness to pay whatever it takes to ship are being implemented and considered.  

Upcoming Milestones:

Shipment Report: April 12, 2022
NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022

Week 15 Update

Bullish Trends:

1. We are seeing firming prices, specifically on the Nonpareil variety sizes 27/30 and larger due to shortages and demand exceeding this year’s supply.
2. Inshell demand has also picked up substantially this week as destination markets are actively trading.   
3. News of an unfavorable weather situation in Spain has been floating around. A possible freeze has been mentioned, which could impact their crop at the worst time of the season. More on the legitimacy of this claim to follow.

Bearish Trends:

1. While supply of Nonpareil may be in question, the pollinizers remain in great supply, especially the smaller sizes that will most likely end up having to be sold as standards. This could be much of the carry-over.
2. It will certainly take an average of +220 million pounds per month for the remainder of the crop year, to avoid a seven-digit carry-over.
3. With strong growing conditions, and an expected increase in acreage harvested this season, expectations of a similar crop to last year are anticipated.

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