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Almond Market Update - April 21, 2022

April showers bring May flowers! We continue to have on and off rain this week. While these are not large atmospheric rivers, we know that when in a drought every little drop will have a positive effect. Last week the Sierra’s received 12” to 18” of snow throughout the northern areas. This week they are expecting as much as three feet of fresh powder in some areas. Warning advisories have gone out not to travel through the Sierra’s today or tomorrow. Simply amazing for this time of the year.

Last week the Almond Board of California released the March position report announcing the industry had shipped 245 million pounds of almonds, representing the strongest shipping month of the current crop year. The bar has now been set with expectations of being able to average +220 million pounds per month for theremaining four months of the crop year. Some may consider it a low expectation, but given the current environment we are operating within, we are welcoming these new standards.

Crop receipts appear to now be topping out, which may bring the total for the year to somewhere between 2.91 to 2.92 billion pounds; down from 3.1 billion pounds last year. Domestic shipments in March were 71.84 million pounds, flat to a year ago, while exports were 173 million pounds, down 11.4 % to a year ago.

Meanwhile, year to date shipments for the domestic market are at 517 million pounds, down 3% over last year at this same time. Export shipments are at 1.16 billion pounds, which is -19% year over year. Total shipments are currently down 15%, standing at 1.683 billion pounds.

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Shipment Report: May 11, 2022
  • NASS Acreage Report: April 28, 2022
  • Subjective Estimate: May 12, 2022
  • Objective Estimate: July 8, 2022

Week 17Update
Bullish Trends:

  1. New crop sales in March were 220 million pounds, an increase over last March’s 191 million pounds. This may indicate good things in store for the industry through the remainder of the crop year.
  2. With consistently low prices, almonds represent a great value which is evident by new crop sales this month. Our only hurdle now is getting it shipped.
  3. While we see other goods and services subjected to inflationary pressures, almonds appear to be insulated from this pressure. These values need to find their way to the retail shelves now.

Bearish Trends:

  1. Pressure may remain on the almond industry as supply continues to exceed the demand. This may trend on into the next crop year as well, as we are seeing another strong crop on the trees.
  2. Are we experiencing demand destruction due to inflationary pressures, fuel prices and consumer dollar being stretched too thin?
  3. The industry needs to turn it up; more sales are needed now, not later. The idea of a 900 million pound carry-over being a good thing is truly questionable, space will be at a premium when the new harvest comes in August.

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