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Almond Market Update - April 18, 2022

Last week we saw unseasonably hot weather, although it only stuck around for a short period of time. This week it feels like February again, and although we did not have any rain in February this year, we did have some rain come through the area on Monday and more is expected by the end of the week. While it may not be a substantial amount of rain, every drop helps! Just the cooler temperatures are something to be grateful for, as they help stretch out water usage. Nobody is ready for 95 degrees yet, especially the orchards!

The Almond Board of California released the March position report this week. The industry shipped 245 million pounds of almonds, the strongest shipping month thus far for the crop year. This is a testament to the hard-working logistics professionals throughout our industry. They are painstakingly dedicated to staying on the phone and working tirelessly day after day to move these loads in the most challenging of times. While the shipping number falls short compared to last March at 267 million pounds, and by no means takes us out of the woods, it does demonstrate the demand is there and remains consistent. All we have to do is ship it...

New sales for the month of March were at 220 million pounds, which was stronger than last year’s 191 million pounds. This now puts commitments ahead of this same time last year by +2.5%. This is a strong indicator of future shipments continuing along this trajectory. Again, we are not out of the woods by any means, however, the industry is headed in the right direction with four months to go.

Two independent entities have released their crop estimates this week for the 2022/23 crop year, both being very similar to each another. The initial forecasts are calling for bearing acreage between 1.37 and 1.38 million acres. If the average yield per acre is 2,100 pounds, that would give us another crop similar to the 2021/22 crop year at 2.90 billion pounds.

 

Upcoming Milestones:

  • Shipment Report: May 11, 2022
  • NASS Acreage Report: April 21, 2022
  • Subjective Estimate: May 11, 2022
  • Objective Estimate: July 6, 2022

Week 16 Update

Bullish Trends:

  • The market has reacted positively to this month’s shipment report as we see prices having firmed. This will encourage growers to jump into the market and help build continued sales through the end of the crop year.
  • We are beginning to see increased activity in destination markets such as India, as buyers take advantage of current market levels understanding the market may continue to firm for the time being.   
  • While logistics continue to plague California processors, we have now had a breakthrough month which hopefully will gain momentum and continue through the end of the crop year.

Bearish Trends:

  • The market will continue to work as the carryover remains concerning with 900 million pounds still in the equation.
  • As the sellers start to compete for the remaining business, will they be able to hold their ground or succumb to the pressure to sell as we get closer and closer to harvest?  
  • With a new crop coming, that is expected to be as large as the last, the industry will have more almonds to sell than ever before. The industry must continue to sell into the new crop now with no hesitation. 

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